Weekly Market Insights | Investors React to Mixed Signals

Stocks rose last week despite mixed signals on inflation as investors kept one eye on the Fed’s September meeting. The S&P 500 index rose 0.9% this week, scaling new peaks in four consecutive trading sessions, as the probability of an interest-rate cut in September remained elevated following divergent inflation reports. The NASDAQ closed out last week at 21,692.88 which is up about 12.87% year-to-date the DOW is up 6.61% on the year while the MSCI EAFE Index which tracks overseas stock markets is up about 22.99% on the year. 

Third Gain in Four Weeks

The S&P 500 ended Friday's session at 6,449.80, bringing quarter-to-date gains to 4%, and year-to-date growth to 10.84%. 

Following a weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls report last Friday and a surprise drop in the Institute for Supply Management's US services index, the US seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose 0.2% in July, as expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg, and below the 0.3% gain in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday.

The odds of a 25-basis-point cut in September reached 99.9% after the soft consumer price data, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool. This near-certain probability, however, dissipated to 92% on Thursday after BLS data showed the Producer Price Index rose 0.9% in July, from no growth in June, and compared with the 0.2% increase forecast in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

The rate-cut probability settled at 89% late on Friday after the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 58.6 in August from 61.7 in July, below expectations for an increase to 62 in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. Respondents' one-year inflation forecasts at 4.9% were up from 4.5% in July, while five-year inflation outlook climbed to 3.9% from 3.4%.

Healthcare, communication services, and consumer discretionary were the top three gainers this week.

Eli Lilly ( LLY ) is among several Western pharmaceutical companies that have applied for their drugs and treatments to be included in China's new catalog of commercial health insurance, according to a Bloomberg report. Separately, Eli Lilly announced that its obesity and type 2 diabetes drug Mounjaro in its KwikPen form is now available across India in all doses. The company also plans to increase the price of Mounjaro in the UK, starting in September, to align pricing with other developed countries.

Shares of Eli Lilly ( LLY ) jumped 12% this week.

Meanwhile, Paramount Skydance ( PSKY ) announced it will develop its Nickelodeon, MTV, and BET networks, as well as boost feature film production, according to multiple media reports. The announcement comes a week after the $8.4 billion merger of Paramount Global and Skydance Media. Shares of Paramount Skydance surged 31% this week.

The consumer staples sector was the worst-performing in the S&P 500 this week, down 0.6%.

Kroger ( KR ) said it settled a lawsuit filed by C&S Wholesale Grocers in Delaware's Superior Court. C&S claimed in the lawsuit that it was owed a $125 million termination fee related to Kroger's failed $25 billion acquisition of Albertsons, under which C&S would acquire nearly 600 stores, according to media reports. Shares of Kroger dropped 5.9% this week.

Next week's earnings calendar features Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) , Home Depot ( HD ) , TJX Companies ( TJX ) , Lowe's Companies (LOW), Walmart ( WMT ) , and Intuit (INTU).

Economic data due next week includes July's building permits and housing starts as well as existing home sales, and minutes of the FOMC's July 29-30 meeting. The week will also see the beginning of the Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium, a congregation of global central bankers, which will be watched even more closely as the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could use the podium to signal the restart of monetary policy easing in September.

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Homebuilder Confidence Index.

Tuesday: Housing Starts. Building Permits. Federal Reserve Official Michelle Bowman speaks.

Wednesday: Minutes from Fed’s FOMC July Meeting. Federal Reserve Official Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speak.

Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Services & Manufacturing PMI Composite. Existing Home Sales. Leading Economic Indicators. 30-Year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) Auction. Fed Balance Sheet. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks.

Friday: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; August 15, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)

Tuesday: The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)

Wednesday: The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX), Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW), Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI)

Thursday: Walmart Inc. (WMT), Intuit Inc. (INTU)

^{Source: Zacks, August 15, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

“If you would be loved, love and be lovable.”

– Benjamin Franklin

Learn About ABLE Accounts

People with disabilities can use an Achieving a Better Life Experience (ABLE) account to help pay qualified disability-related expenses. Here are some things to know about ABLE accounts:

• This tax-advantaged savings account doesn't affect their eligibility for government assistance programs.
  
  
• ABLE account-designated beneficiaries may be eligible to claim the saver's credit for a percentage of their contributions.
  
  
• Eligible beneficiaries must be 18 years old at the close of the taxable year, not dependent or full-time students, and meet the income requirements.
  
  
• Families may roll over funds from a 529 plan to another family member's ABLE account.
  
  
• Disability-related expenses include housing, education, transportation, health, prevention and wellness, employment training and support, assistive technology, and personal support services.

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS¹⁰

Infused Water Recipes

Staying hydrated is essential for our overall health, and these fun, delicious infused water options make drinking water a little more fun. Bonus points if you try them with sparkling water for a bit of fizz!

• Honeydew, cucumber, and mint
• Watermelon, kiwi, and lime
• Mango, raspberries, and ginger root
• Blackberries, orange, and ginger root
• Grapefruit, pomegranate, and mint
• Pineapple, coconut, and lime
• Blueberries, lemon, and rosemary
• Strawberries, lemon, and basil

To infuse your water with these delicious combinations, just put all the ingredients in a pitcher, add water, and remove the fruits, veggies, or herbs in 24 hours. Drinking water has never been tastier or more beautiful.

Tip Adapted from Culinary Hill¹¹

Create a 13-letter word using all 13 of the following letters: O A I I S T T R R D N A M.

Last Week's Riddle: What is worn by the foot and often bought by the yard?
Answer: Carpet.

Blue-Ringed Octopus
Lembeh Straits, Indonesia

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. WSJ.com, August 8, 2025}

^{2. Investing.com, August 8, 2025}  

^{3. MarketWatch.com, August 4, 2025}

^{4. CNBC.com, August 5, 2025}

^{5. CNBC.com, August 6, 2025}

^{6. WSJ.com, August 7, 2025}

^{7. WSJ.com, August 8, 2025}

^{8. WSJ.com, August 5, 2025}

^{9. Advantage.FactSet.com, August 1, 2025}

^{10. IRS.gov, July 22, 2024} 

^{11. Culinary Hill, March 19, 2025}

^{12. MT Newswires, Ycharts.com Aug. 11 - Aug. 15, 2025}