Weekly Market Insights | Rally Caps Volatile Week

Stocks ended the week with a strong gain as traders continued to focus on tariff talks while appearing to overlook upbeat news on inflation.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 5.70 percent closing Friday's session at 5,363.36, up significantly from last week's closing level, but down 4.4% fro April and 8.8% for the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 7.29 percent closing at 16,724.46. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 4.95 percent closing at 40,212.71. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 0.72 percent.^1,2

Stocks Rebound

The market had a turbulent start to the second quarter amid worries about the economic impacts of the US's sweeping retaliatory tariffs that started earlier this month, prompting sharp stock declines. President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a three-month pause on most tariffs for countries other than China, on which the administration increased its rate to 145%.

China retaliated by raising its tariffs on US products to 125%.

US consumer sentiment soured in April as year-ahead inflation expectations reached the highest point since 1981, according to a University of Michigan report. The main sentiment gauge slid to 50.8 this month from 57 in March. The consensus was for a 53.5 print in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

The Q1 reporting season began with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) reporting better-than-expected results on their top and bottom lines while Wells Fargo (WFC)'s earnings topped views but its revenue missed expectations. On a weekly basis, JPMorgan's shares rose 12%, Morgan Stanley's shares added 8.3% and Wells Fargo's shares edged up 2.5%.

The technology sector had the largest percentage increase of the week, jumping 9.7%, followed by a 6.5% climb in industrials, a 6.4% rise in communication services and a 5.6% gain in financials. Consumer discretionary, materials, consumer staples, utilities and health care also rose.

Broadcom (AVGO) was the top performer in the technology sector, soaring 24% as the company said its board authorized a share repurchase program to buy back up to $10 billion of common shares.

Among industrials, GE Vernova (GEV) had the largest percentage increase of the week, jumping 18%. The company's board declared a $0.25 per share quarterly dividend.

Still, energy shed 0.4% and real estate was down 0.2%.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) led the energy sector's decliners, falling 7.1%. Analysts at TD Cowen and Scotiabank downgraded their investment ratings on the stock this week while multiple analysts also lowered their price targets on the shares.

Next week will be a heavy earnings week, with reports expected from companies including Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Netflix (NFLX) and American Express (AXP).

Economic reports will include March import prices, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts and building permits.

Watching the Bond Market

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose more than 50 basis points for the week, marking one of the most significant moves on record. (When bond yields increase, bond prices tend to move lower.)

The week’s action was unexpected. In the past, investors have turned to U.S. bonds during market turbulence. However, the ongoing tariff talks have, at least temporarily, influenced how some overseas investors view U.S. bonds.^7,8

The bond market activity influenced the mortgage market, where the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage closed Friday at 7.1 percent, its highest level in two months.⁹

This Week: Key Economic Data

Monday: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speak.

Tuesday: Import Price Index.

Wednesday: Retail Sales. Industrial Production. Business Inventories. Home Builder Confidence Index. Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks. 

Thursday: Housing Starts. Building Permits.

Friday: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks.

^{Source: Investors Business Daily - Econoday economic calendar; April 11, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)

Tuesday:  Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C)

Wednesday: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Prologis, Inc. (PLD)

Thursday: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH), Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), American Express Company (AXP), Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC), The Blackstone Group (BX), Infosys (INFY)

^{Source: Zacks, April 11, 2025. Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

"I think that we communicate only too well, in our silence, in what is unsaid, and that what takes place is a continual evasion, desperate rear-guard attempts to keep ourselves to ourselves. Communication is too alarming."

– Harold Pinter

Tax Tips for Farmers

If you own a farm, ranch, range, or orchard, here are some tax tips to consider:

• Insurance payments from crop damage may count as income. Check with your tax professional.
• If you sold livestock or items you bought for resale, you may have a taxable event.
• You may be able to deduct ordinary and necessary expenses that you paid for your business.
• Consider the tax treatment of your farm’s full and part-time workers.
• If your expenses are more than your income for the year, you may have a net operating loss. You may be able to carry that loss over to other years. 

This information is not a substitute for individualized tax advice. Please discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS¹⁰

How to Measure Your Heart Rate (Without a Smart Device)

There are so many smart gadgets to help us monitor our health, but knowing how to measure your heart rate without any tech is important to monitor your overall health. 

• To measure your heart rate, gently place your index and middle finger on a pulse point, such as your wrist right below the base of your thumb or your neck right under your jawbone.
• Lightly press until you can feel your heartbeat, then count the number of beats in 15 seconds. You’ll need a watch or clock to time yourself.
• Multiply this number by 4 to get your heart rate per minute.
• Feel free to repeat this exercise a few times to confirm your reading's accuracy.

Tip adapted from Harvard Medical School¹¹

I have a horn and am almost as large as a car, but I will never honk my horn or outrun a car or truck. What might I be?

Last week’s riddle: I can certainly run, but I will never be able to walk by myself. Wherever I go, thoughts are close behind me. What am I?
Answer: A nose.

Scenic Highway 93
Alberta, Canada

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, April 11, 2025}

^{2. Investing.com, April 11, 2025}

^{3. CNBC.com, April 8, 2025}

^{4. The Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2025}

^{5. The Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2025}

^{6. MarketWatch.com, April 11, 2025}

^{7. WSJ.com, April 9, 2025}

^{8. MarketWatch.com, April 9, 2025}

^{9. CNBC.com, April 11, 2025}

^{10. IRS.gov, June 4, 2024}

^{11. Harvard Medical School, December 12, 2024}

^{12. Provided by MT Newswires. YChart.com Apr. 7 - Apr. 11, 2025.}